When Are Home Heating Prices Expected to Go Down?

With winter weather settling in, homeowners in the U.S. are facing the problem of home heating costs. Recent years have seen a remarkable rise in energy costs, leaving many searching for answers and relief. Uncover what affects home heating prices, the recent trends we’ve seen and ways to keep your utility bills in check.

Varieties of Home Heating Fuel

Many fuels are used to keep homes warm and cozy in the United States:

  • Natural gas heats 48% of American homes.
  • Heating oil is the fuel used in 5% of homes.
  • Propane fuels another 5%.
  • Electricity warms 40% of U.S. homes. Fossil fuels remain the main source for making electricity despite the increase in renewable energy sources like wind and solar. 

What Are the Key Influences on the Cost of Fossil Fuels?

Based on the above information, it’s apparent that fossil fuels heat a large majority of North American households. Supply and demand is the biggest factor driving price fluctuations. An increase in supply—triggered by greater production and storage rates—typically lowers prices, while an increase in demand—triggered by harsh weather, a thriving economy and rising rates for alternative fuels—can cause prices to climb.

Exactly How Much Has the Price of Natural Gas Gone Up?

Domestic natural gas production outpaced consumption starting in 2017, causing a broad price decline in all of 2018. Unfortunately, demand has soared recently across all sectors, causing natural gas prices to reach heights not seen in over a decade.

In 2022, the average wholesale cost of U.S. natural gas reached its highest point since 2008, attaining an average of $6.45 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). This massive increase represented a major leap of greater than 53% from the previous year, marking it as one of the biggest annual increases ever recorded.

Many factors contributed to the erratic rise and instability of natural gas prices last year. In early 2022, production hiccups caused by freeze-offs and a large draw from natural gas reserves nudged prices way up. Robust liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to Europe and elsewhere, paired with a surge in domestic demand because of cold weather, stretched the price range even further.

In the spring of 2022, prices jumped past $9/MMBtu, only to drop by 40% following the fire and subsequent closure of the Freeport LNG export terminal. This incident drastically cut U.S. LNG exports and redirected more natural gas into storage. Unfortunately, as the summer heat faded, prices climbed again, reaching a peak in late August.

Shifting into the fall, an increase in natural gas production and higher-than-average injections into storage saw prices drop down closer to the five-year average. However, as temperatures went down, the demand for heating caused prices to ascend one more time.

When Will Prices Calm Down?

The changes in natural gas prices are indicative of the complicated interplay of factors influencing home heating fuel rates. As we look ahead to the rest of the 2023-24 heating season, the market’s past behavior offers insights into future price changes and the prospect of cost-saving measures.

As of late 2023, prices have fallen from their previous highs thanks to robust production and relatively moderate temperatures. While demand continues to be steady, forecasters anticipate prices around $3.44/MMBtu this winter, giving some respite for house owners as we move through the heating season.

Tips to Trim Your Heating Bill

Regardless of how you heat your home or what prices are like, you can take several practical steps to improve energy efficiency and lower your heating bills. Here are some strategies:

  • Seal drafty windows and doors with caulk and weatherstripping.
  • Use curtains to your advantage, opening them during the day for free light and heat and then closing them in the evenings to insulate your windows.
  • Boost attic insulation to prevent heat from rising out of your home.
  • Install a smart thermostat that learns your behavior and helps you save money.
  • Lower the temperature on your thermostat when you’re out so you don’t pay extra to heat an empty house.
  • Wear warmer clothes inside your residence so you do not have to crank up the thermostat.
  • Make an appointment for seasonal furnace maintenance to keep your heating system in top shape.
  • Set up a whole-house humidifier. Moist air feels warmer than dry air, so you feel more comfy at a lower temperature.

Make Your Home Warm in the U.S. with Service Experts Heating, Air Conditioning & Plumbing

Nothing is more critical to the Service Experts Heating, Air Conditioning & Plumbing team than your comfort and happiness in your home. Our heating solutions can also help reduce home heating costs, which is excellent news for your bank account. With ACE-certified technicians at the helm, you can expect quality, long-lasting answers to all your comfort needs. Our company’s 100% satisfaction guarantee means that if you’re not completely happy with our services, you can count on us to make things right.

As a company that prides itself on innovation, customer engagement and community support, you can trust Service Experts Heating, Air Conditioning & Plumbing to make a meaningful difference in your life and enjoyment in your home. For more details of what you can expect with heating prices in the U.S. or personalized methods to help reduce your utility bills, reach out to the professionals at Service Experts Heating, Air Conditioning & Plumbing. Call 866-397-3787 today to learn more.

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